A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
